The Energy Transition: Coming to a Region Near You

The energy transition plan for the Outaouais region is the fruit of a long process of reflection on the issue of energy in the region and the role the Outaouais can play in achieving Quebec's ambitious and necessary carbon neutrality objectives. This process of reflection has been nurtured by contact with the local community and government authorities, who, in view of the region's potential, have confirmed the leadership of the Conseil régional de l'environnement et du développement durable de l'Outaouais (CREDDO) and its determination to provide the region with a decision-making tool for its energy transition.

Thanks to their close ties with the community, cities are key players in achieving Quebec's climate objectives. In response to its members' desire to contribute to the energy transition, the UMQ is positioning itself as a gas pedal to help municipalities take concrete and efficient action.

Following the rail tragedy of July 6, 2013, the population of LacMégantic took part in a vast citizen consultation and chose to redeploy itself by pursuing the path of ecological and energy transition. Since then, a major solar microgrid project has been developed with Hydro-Québec, becoming a strategic lever towards other ongoing projects that will be discussed during the presentation. Aside from the technologies involved, the common thread running through Lac-Mégantic's energy transition is the mobilization of the community and the social aspect, both of which are playing a decisive role in achieving its objectives. The presentation will address these themes, which represent an opportunity for the people of Lac-Mégantic to act locally for their energy transition and inspire other municipalities to follow suit.

The Ecological Transition is largely an energy transition. At the forefront as a metropolis, Montréal is multiplying actions that accelerate the municipal movement to reduce GHG emissions. The essential role of municipalities in a certain regional energy revolution implies coordination with government and energy distributors to propel innovation and remove barriers. We'll be highlighting the multiplier effect of municipalities, their ability to mobilize civil society through forums such as Partenariat Climat Montréal, and the structuring impact of major financing.

Drawing up climate plans is a complex process encompassing a multitude of interdependent factors. Given this complexity, a systemic and holistic approach is essential. CityInSight, a model specialized in energy and emissions, has won the trust of major Canadian metropolises and established itself as the cornerstone of over a hundred climate plans in Canada, the United States and Latin America. The model provides a precise geographical and temporal view of the sectors responsible for GHG emissions in the municipalities and regions where it is applied. These representations are then projected using scenarios, modulated according to various climate policies and initiatives, allowing strategic comparisons between various future projections. This approach leads to the design of relevant climate plans, laying the foundations for achieving ambitious decarbonation objectives in our communities.

During this session, we will discuss the key principles and mechanics of the CityInSight model, illustrating it with concrete examples from municipalities and regions that have adopted it. In addition, we will share feedback and lessons learned from the many climate plans supported by CityInSight, highlighting the importance of scenario modeling in developing an effective strategy to address climate challenges.

Quebec has embarked on an energy transition aimed at decarbonating its economy. Provincial and regional decision-makers are adopting initiatives whose impact on regional economic development can be highly uneven. Ideally, the impacts on all regions should be assessed and taken into account when adopting energy transition initiatives, to ensure that the initiatives adopted benefit all regions.

This ideal is hampered by the complexity of interactions between regional economies, uses of different forms of energy and any constraints placed on these uses. To achieve this ideal, we need to model - or simplify - these interactions. The primary benefit of modeling for decision-making is its ability to highlight the presence of relationships that are not explicitly apparent, but which prove decisive in identifying and devising ways of meeting the challenges facing the decision-maker. Modeling can go beyond the identification of relationships, by enabling the quantitative evaluation of the multiple impacts generated by different alternatives proposed to meet a particular challenge. Modeling can help answer the question "And if policy A were implemented, what would we expect?", enabling decision-makers to assess the consequences of different alternative policies, compare these consequences and thus identify what they consider to be "the best policy" to implement according to their preferences and objectives. Modeling can go beyond the quantitative assessment of a policy's consequences, by offering explanations for the arrival and importance of these different consequences. For example, such modeling can help explain, and thus understand, why a policy that generates only positive impacts in the short term may turn out to produce harmful effects in the longer term. This understanding then enables modifications to be made to the policy in order to mitigate its unintended consequences.

Yves Richelle will illustrate these aspects of modeling by examining the impact of fleet electrification on achieving the target of a 40% reduction in the use of petroleum products by 2030 compared with 2013, as well as on the economic development of Quebec and its regions. This illustration will be based on results generated by the Hercule-Impacts model developed by Daméco, which incorporates a capacity constraint for electricity production.