{"id":82636,"date":"2019-01-30T12:16:35","date_gmt":"2019-01-30T17:16:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/nos-publications\/future-soil-temperature-water-content\/"},"modified":"2019-01-30T12:16:35","modified_gmt":"2019-01-30T17:16:35","slug":"future-soil-temperature-water-content","status":"publish","type":"cpt_publication","link":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/future-soil-temperature-water-content\/","title":{"rendered":"Projections of future soil temperature and water content for three southern Qu\u00e9bec forested sites"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Published in <b>Journal of Climate 25: 7690-7701. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JCLI-D-11-00440.1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JCLI-D-11-00440.1<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n<p>The impacts of climate change on future soil temperature Ts and soil moisture Ms of northern forests are uncertain. In this study, the authors first calibrated Ts and Ms models [Forest Soil Temperature Model (ForSTeM) and Forest\u00a0 Hydrology Model (ForHyM), respectively] using long-term observations of Ts and Ms at different depths measured at three forest sites in eastern Canada. The two models were then used to project Ts and Ms for the period 1971\u20132100 using historical and future climate scenarios generated by one regional and five global climate models. Results indicate good model performance by ForSTeM and ForHyM in predicting observed Ts and Ms values at various depths for the three sites. Projected annual-mean Ts at these sites increased between 1.1\u00b0 and 1.9\u00b0C and between 1.9\u00b0 and 3.3\u00b0C from the present 30-yr averages (1971\u20132000) to the periods 2040\u201369 and 2070\u201399, respectively. Increases as high as 5.0\u00b0C were projected at the black spruce site during the growing season (June) for the period 2070\u201399. Changes in annual-mean Ms were relatively small; however, seasonally Ms is projected to increase in April, because of earlier snowmelt, and to decrease during the growing season, mainly because of higher evapotranspiration rates. Soil moisture in the growing season could be reduced by 20%\u201340% for the period 2070\u201399 compared to the reference period. The projected warmer and drier soil conditions in the growing season could have significant impacts on forests growth and biogeochemical cycles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Published in Journal of Climate 25: 7690-7701. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JCLI-D-11-00440.1 The impacts of climate change on future soil temperature Ts and soil moisture Ms of northern forests are uncertain. In this study, the authors first calibrated Ts and Ms models [Forest Soil Temperature Model (ForSTeM) and Forest\u00a0 Hydrology Model (ForHyM), respectively] using long-term observations of Ts and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","format":"standard","cptt_secteur":[1179],"cptt_theme":[1183,1180,1181],"cptt_categ_publi":[1149],"cptt_auteurs_ministeriels":[1082,1091],"class_list":["post-82636","cpt_publication","type-cpt_publication","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","cptt_secteur-forests","cptt_theme-ecosystems-and-environment","cptt_theme-forestry-research","cptt_theme-forests","cptt_categ_publi-scientific-article","cptt_auteurs_ministeriels-duchesne-louis","cptt_auteurs_ministeriels-d-houle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Projections of future soil temperature and water content for three southern Qu\u00e9bec forested sites - Minist\u00e8re des Ressources naturelles et des For\u00eats<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Projections of future soil temperature and water content for 3 southern Qu\u00e9bec forested sites using models to predict climate change impacts.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/future-soil-temperature-water-content\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Projections of future soil temperature and water content for three southern Qu\u00e9bec forested sites - 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