{"id":82593,"date":"2019-01-30T12:16:23","date_gmt":"2019-01-30T17:16:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/nos-publications\/potential-changes-forest-composition-boreal-wildfires\/"},"modified":"2019-01-30T12:16:23","modified_gmt":"2019-01-30T17:16:23","slug":"potential-changes-forest-composition-boreal-wildfires","status":"publish","type":"cpt_publication","link":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/potential-changes-forest-composition-boreal-wildfires\/","title":{"rendered":"Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Published in <b>Ecological Society of America 23(1): 21-35. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1890\/12-0425.1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1890\/12-0425.1<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n<p>There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the <em>status quo<\/em> scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Published in Ecological Society of America 23(1): 21-35. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1890\/12-0425.1 There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","format":"standard","cptt_secteur":[1179],"cptt_theme":[1183,1180,1181],"cptt_categ_publi":[1149],"cptt_auteurs_ministeriels":[1103],"class_list":["post-82593","cpt_publication","type-cpt_publication","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","cptt_secteur-forests","cptt_theme-ecosystems-and-environment","cptt_theme-forestry-research","cptt_theme-forests","cptt_categ_publi-scientific-article","cptt_auteurs_ministeriels-c-perie"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires - Minist\u00e8re des Ressources naturelles et des For\u00eats<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires in eastern Canada.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/potential-changes-forest-composition-boreal-wildfires\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires - 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Minist\u00e8re des Ressources naturelles et des For\u00eats","description":"Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires in eastern Canada.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/potential-changes-forest-composition-boreal-wildfires\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires - Minist\u00e8re des Ressources naturelles et des For\u00eats","og_description":"Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires in eastern Canada.","og_url":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/potential-changes-forest-composition-boreal-wildfires\/","og_site_name":"Minist\u00e8re des Ressources naturelles et des For\u00eats","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/RessourcesNaturellesForets\/","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":630,"url":"\/wp-content\/uploads\/Image-g%c3%a9n%c3%a9rale-hiver_FB.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@mrnfqc","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/potential-changes-forest-composition-boreal-wildfires\/","url":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/potential-changes-forest-composition-boreal-wildfires\/","name":"Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires - 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