{"id":82167,"date":"2019-01-30T12:18:22","date_gmt":"2019-01-30T17:18:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/nos-publications\/forest-tree-species-vulnerability\/"},"modified":"2019-01-30T12:18:22","modified_gmt":"2019-01-30T17:18:22","slug":"forest-tree-species-vulnerability","status":"publish","type":"cpt_publication","link":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/forest-tree-species-vulnerability\/","title":{"rendered":"Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Published in <b>PeerJ 4: e2218. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7717\/peerj.2218\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7717\/peerj.2218<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Published in PeerJ 4: e2218. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7717\/peerj.2218 Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","format":"standard","cptt_secteur":[1179],"cptt_theme":[1183,1180,1181],"cptt_categ_publi":[1149],"cptt_auteurs_ministeriels":[1103],"class_list":["post-82167","cpt_publication","type-cpt_publication","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","cptt_secteur-forests","cptt_theme-ecosystems-and-environment","cptt_theme-forestry-research","cptt_theme-forests","cptt_categ_publi-scientific-article","cptt_auteurs_ministeriels-c-perie"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes - Minist\u00e8re des Ressources naturelles et des For\u00eats<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Projecting suitable conditions for a tree species provides a reasonable estimate of species vulnerability to climate change.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/forest-tree-species-vulnerability\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes - 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Minist\u00e8re des Ressources naturelles et des For\u00eats","description":"Projecting suitable conditions for a tree species provides a reasonable estimate of species vulnerability to climate change.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/forest-tree-species-vulnerability\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes - Minist\u00e8re des Ressources naturelles et des For\u00eats","og_description":"Projecting suitable conditions for a tree species provides a reasonable estimate of species vulnerability to climate change.","og_url":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/forest-tree-species-vulnerability\/","og_site_name":"Minist\u00e8re des Ressources naturelles et des For\u00eats","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/RessourcesNaturellesForets\/","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":630,"url":"\/wp-content\/uploads\/Image-g%c3%a9n%c3%a9rale-hiver_FB.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@mrnfqc","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/forest-tree-species-vulnerability\/","url":"https:\/\/mrnf.gouv.qc.ca\/en\/our-publications\/forest-tree-species-vulnerability\/","name":"Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes - 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